It only takes one storm to make a bad a hurricane season. While the force field will be up most of the time with plenty of wind shear from a strong El Nino, it will only take one hit when shields are down for a big impact – just like in the movies.

The official National Hurricane Center forecast calls for average to below average named storms, but one of those could be like Michael or Bob during past El Nino events.

Michael struck Florida as a category 5 in an El Nino.

Bob struck Rhode Island back in the 90s during an El nino year, too.

The warming of the Tropical Pacific creates rising motion and storms, leading to an active Pacific season. But the sinking air and force field from wind shear in the Atlantic will suppress tropical activity there.

Still, it only takes one storm when shields are down, plus you have warm waters that fuel storms in the Atlantic.

Chances are low, but not zero that a storm hits the U-S this season, despite the “force field” from El Nino.

Come Winter the El Nino will still be in effect and that will mean this Winter is different than last year. We’ll talk more about that in the coming months.