Weather Geek’s Blog

“MODEL GUIDANCE…HOW TO REALLY USE THEM

10-15 DAYS FROM A POTENTIAL STORM

EURO at 10 days shows a pattern
GFS plays a pattern look 10-15 days out but not sure of tracks and storm formation
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6-10 DAYS FROM A POTENTIAL STORM

EURO gets much better in seeing the Bigger storms and how they will evolve.
GFS gets the idea but tends to overplay storms and placement. Pattern shows up nicely here
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3-6 DAYS FROM A POTENTIAL STORM

EURO gets at is best in depicting a storm, esp west coast due to superior modeling
GFS tends to show BIG but pulls the magic act and poof it’s gone or reduced greatly. (lack o data out west is the cause)
CMC gets into the game with higher than average accuracy. Lean on this and EURO at this point
NAM on the edges of getting in range and starts to show a track but not an exact point
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0-2 DAYS FROM A POTENTIAL STORM

NAM gets real good most of the time but can overplay moisture and make it too warm on some levels
GFS is very good and is the model this season to lean on until the NAM gets a better score.
CMC/EURO are good but I switch over to the USA models since we get into a data rich enivironment.”

-RG

Those are the reasons why I do not get hyped up for a big snowstorm too many days in advance. It is also why I normally do not forecast snow totals 3-5 days out. There are too many variables at that point for me to be confident in one forecast.

Good Evening,

Above you will see my forecast for the winter storm that is on our doorstep. I went out on a limb with this storm and forecasted higher totals than what most forecasters are calling for. Why? Let me explain…The computer models are just a guide. If you follow them too closely or copy them word for word then disasters happen, like the major storm back in December of last year. With that storm it was supposed to rain for 6 hours and then change to heavy snow. What actually happened? It snowed the entire time and never changed to rain. We had over 2 1/2 feet when it was over. I have never felt worse as a meteorologist in my career. Not because I obviously got the forecast wrong. I felt horrible because people weren’t prepared.

I have learned from my mistake last year. If there is potential for a foot of snow, I am going to say so. That doesn’t mean I am going to “over-forecast” my snowfall totals whenever we have a chance for a foot of snow. I will use my judgement and experience to decide when to forecast more snow than most people believe. I can promise you one thing though…. I feel that the chances of being unprepared for a major storm are a lot smaller now that I have learned from the past. Remember, if you do not learn from the past, you are doomed to repeat it.

As for this storm coming tonight….a few thoughts…

1. Heavy snow will happen in waves tonight from southwest to northeast. 1-2″ per hour snow burts will occur. I am very confident about that.

2. A mix or changeover to sleet/frz. rain is possible for southern counties. If that happens then the snowfall totals will come down but the conditions will be far worse. That is why i am calling this a “major localized event.” We dont need to see 2 1/2 feet of snow to have a major storm. even 4-8 inches of heavy snow with .25″ of ice can be major, especially if it falls right at morning rush hour.

3. the models are trying to develop a weak secondary storm in the wake of the first main storm. If that happens a few more inches of snow will be added at the end.

4. This storm is not like anything we have seen yet this season. It will be relatively heavy snow, possibly bringing down power lines, especially with ice. I do not see plain rain moving into most areas. We shall see what actually happens….

click WOAY-TV StormWatch

radar

Good Morning Everyone,

The storm has dropped about 1/4 of an inch of rainfall last night in Beckley according to the airport measurement. Only light rain was reported. Now light snow is falling despite the temperature being at 34-36 degrees. Why is that happening? I will explain…

For example, Beckley is at about 2,500 feet above sea level and the atmosphere is cooling rapidly from the top down right now. As the atmosphere cools the precipitation will changeover from top to bottom. However, it will not stick on the roadways until the ground also cools to 32 degrees. I do not expect this to happen until later this afternoon and evening. I do not expect I64 to be snow covered until late tonight/Monday morning. Only the secondary roadways and cars will ice up and become snow covered this evening.

One thing that weather forecasters underestimate with a storm like this is the “dry slot.” The dry slot is a wedge of dry air that gets wrapped until the storm as it winds up. That dry slot will be here this afternoon and the precipitation will stop for a time being. However, the atmosphere will still be cooling and the roadways and ground temperature will be lowering. We will only see an inch or two today as far as the snow accumulates on grassy surfaces and cars. 90% of the snow from this storm will not fall until late tonight through Tuesday. I expect almost all schools to be closed tomorrow morning with sub zero wind chills, snow covered roads, and limited visibilities at times. Tuesday morning will be the same, but the snow will be lighter by then, yet still accumulating.

I will not be changing my snowfall prediction, I rarely, if ever do. There will not be much liquid with this storm, but the liquid to snow ratios will be very high, 25/30 to 1. That means we only need a total of a half of an inch of liquid to get 12-15 inches of snow. It means the snow will change from heavy and wet, like it is now, to very light and fluffy.

I will be continuing to monitor the situation from home and am always in constant contact with our weekend meteorologist. If things get worse than I predicted then I will go in tonight. If things go according to plan then i will see everyone monday night at 6 with the latest forecast.

You can continue to track the storm here on my website using the radar screens. Snowfall totals for this area are very hard to find. I will get them to you tomorrow at 6.

Travel safe tonight through Tuesday.

Jason

0Z Nam and GFS are almost identical now that the NAM has caught up to the GFS 120hr upslope period. The usual locations in western Greenbrier, Pocahontas counties as well as eastern Fayette, Nichols and Webster counties will get hammered by upslope from this storm. The models almost always are well short of the actual for upslope. That’s why I went 1-2′ for those locations instead of what the models are showing, even though they finally are over 12″…

Good evening everyone here is the latest on the second significant snowstorm to hit WV. Nailed the first snowstorm forecast. Here is the forecast for the second one.

The first part of the total snow will be on Sunday as the rain changes to snow. The second part will be Monday-Tuesday as the upslope machine is cranking.

The NWS is talking about possible Blizzard watches/warnings. That would be impressive if we actually see true blizzard conditions. I read that they are talking about blizzard-like conditions. It is very rare that we see true blizzard conditions that last for an extended period of time. What is a blizzard you may be wondering…

Blizzard
– A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:

Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than 1 mile)