Weather Geek’s Blog

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Storm Update

Posted by wxgeek on March 2, 2009

The storm is taking a more easterly track. That means a few things:

1. The threat for sleet and or rain will be significantly reduced, even at the coast.

2. The precip has a better chance to stay all snow.

3. The heaviest bands of snow are offshore.

One note, the forecast map below is for the first part of the storm. The second phase will come through after 3 p.m. and give us an additional few inches of snow, up to 3-5 in the heaviest bands. So just add that to the totals below if you are looking for a “total storm accumulation”.

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Another Storm…

Posted by wxgeek on March 1, 2009

Here we go again…

First things first…Yes, there is “potential” for a very significant snowfall for nearly all locations from this storm that will be here Tomorrow. Here’s a few reasons why:

1. The storm would have to take a “perfect” track in the gulf of Maine, normally we refer to this as the 40/70 benchmark.

2. The precipitation would have to remain as 100% snow.

3. The water to snow ratio would have to remain very high (15:1).

Basically, all of that has to happen for us to get the “biggest storm of the year” so far.

If one or all of those things don’t happen then we will not see a foot of snow for all locations.

So let’s just focus on what is likely to happen and how the morning and evening commutes will be. Morning commute: very, very difficult. Evening commute: slow and some black ice on untreated surface.

I am not convinced this storm will be “one” yet. Yes, if we get an inch of water changed over to 15 inches of snow…sure I can see us getting a foot or more. However, once the coastal front or stationary front sets up along the coast I believe sleet and even some rain will mix in for those areas. So we’ll see just how much snow Portland gets. Right now I believe Portland gets 9 inches before the changeover to sleet.

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Monday’s Storm

Posted by wxgeek on February 28, 2009

There is the “potential” for a significant snowfall on Monday. However, I don’t forecast potential so with still plenty of uncertaintly concerning the computer models I have yet to commit to “major” snow.

If the models have more consistent runs the rest of the weekend then I will be on board with another major snowstorm for Monday. Conversely, if the models consistently take the track of the low pressure system more towards the east, then it will only be a glancing blow.

By tomorrow morning at this time we should all know for sure!

Stay tuned…

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Snowfall Totals

Posted by wxgeek on February 23, 2009

another very accurate forecast! =)

MAINE

…ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY…
AUBURN 14.3 436 AM 2/23

…CUMBERLAND COUNTY…
CUMBERLAND CENTER 11.5 637 AM 2/23
WESTBROOK 8.0 345 AM 2/23
PORTLAND 6.5 610 AM 2/23

…FRANKLIN COUNTY…
JAY 22.0 343 AM 2/23
NEW SHARON 21.0 533 AM 2/23
EUSTIS 11.2 604 AM 2/23

…KENNEBEC COUNTY…
CHINA 11.0 311 AM 2/23
AUGUSTA 10.5 520 AM 2/23
RANDOLF 8.0 351 AM 2/23

…KNOX COUNTY…
CAMDEN 7.6 637 AM 2/23

…OXFORD COUNTY…
HARTFORD 21.0 617 AM 2/23
HEBRON 18.0 433 AM 2/23
WATERFORD 17.0 255 AM 2/23
DENMARK 16.0 617 AM 2/23

…SOMERSET COUNTY…
SKOWHEGAN 13.0 254 AM 2/23

…WALDO COUNTY…
BELMONT 17.0 451 AM 2/23
THORNDIKE 11.0 637 AM 2/23

…YORK COUNTY…
SANFORD 8.0 425 AM 2/23

NEW HAMPSHIRE

…BELKNAP COUNTY…
BLACK CAT ISLAND 5.0 346 AM 2/23

…CARROLL COUNTY…
MADISON 14.5 613 AM 2/23
CRAWFORD NOTCH 10.5 510 AM 2/23

…COOS COUNTY…
LOST RIVER 21.0 510 AM 2/23
DIXVILLE NOTCH 14.0 510 AM 2/23
COLEBROOK 12.0 510 AM 2/23
GORHAM 11.5 510 AM 2/23
PINKHAM NOTCH 11.5 510 AM 2/23
TWIN MOUNTAIN 7.5 510 AM 2/23
LANCASTER 6.5 510 AM 2/23

…GRAFTON COUNTY…
FRANCONIA NOTCH 13.0 510 AM 2/23

…ROCKINGHAM COUNTY…
STRATHAM 4.5 525 AM 2/23 S-

…SULLIVAN COUNTY…
SUNAPEE 15.5 346 AM 2/23

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snow forecast

Posted by wxgeek on February 22, 2009

snow

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The backside of the “comma”

Posted by wxgeek on February 21, 2009

The models are now in much more agreement that the backside of the “comma” shape from the coastal low will produce much more in the way of snowfall than the warm air advection ahead of the storm.

As the storm strengthens during the late evening it will wrap and pull colder air in from the northwest and the snowfall will be heavy at times, even at the coast, as the storm rides northeastward.

Essentially we are looking at almost 2 events from one storm. The first will be the precipitation out ahead of the low as it is forming. The second will be the moisture being pulled in on the backside as the cyclonic flow wraps in the snow from the northwest.

It is possible that 6 inches of snow could fall for parts of the southern coast, and more likely the mid coast as the storm pulls away.

Remember, this will be “after” a significant several hours of rain. So things are going to change in a hurry with this storm.The storm will not technically be “over” until midday Monday for northern locations. Consequently, the mountains will see snow into monday as upslope snow showers persist. 2 feet of snow is likely in those localized areas.

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February Storm

Posted by wxgeek on February 21, 2009

Tomorrow’s winter storm will be different than Thursday’s storm for a few reasons:

1. It will be a stronger storm and will get more orgranized faster than the last storm. This means it will have time to deepen in pressure and heavier bands of precipitation will develop ahead of the cyclonic flow.

2. The wind will be stronger out of the east and bring in warmer air off the ocean. This means the rain snow line will likely shift farther northwest and not just the coast will get rain. As far northwest as Lewiston will see at least a mix and maybe even a brief period of rain for a time.

3. Snowfall totals will be significantly higher with this storm compared to the last one. Look for over a foot of snow in the mountains of western Maine and the foothills. The lakes region will also get hit very hard with heavy, wet snow. Power outages may be an issue.

4. The entire coast will likely see very little in the way of snowfall. It will be almost entirely a rain event except for some slushy snow early and some fluffly snow on the backside as the storm exits into the Canada.

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Snowfall Totals

Posted by wxgeek on December 22, 2008

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=PNS&node=KGYX

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Better late than never

Posted by wxgeek on December 20, 2008

The models have finally come into agreement. The 12z run shows that all the models now agree in the placement of the nor’easter for tomorrow. This will lead to a very significant snowfall. Sleet will be minimal and rain will not fall. This will equal very high snowfall totals. Most locations will see 8-10 inches of snow with some areas getting a foot and a half. Some higher elevations could approach 2 feet of snow from this storm in localized areas.

Oh and don’t forget, tomorrow is the first day of winter!

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Monster snowstorm possible Sunday

Posted by wxgeek on December 19, 2008

Northern New England will most likely see snowfall in the one to two foot range on Sunday as a Nor’easter races up the Maine coastline. There is less than 48 hours until this storm will hit. If the storm stays just far enough off shore then we will see all snow, most likely. but it is too early too tell. with a storm that strong it is possible that some mixing may take place east of I95.

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