Weather Geek’s Blog

Here we go again…

First things first…Yes, there is “potential” for a very significant snowfall for nearly all locations from this storm that will be here Tomorrow. Here’s a few reasons why:

1. The storm would have to take a “perfect” track in the gulf of Maine, normally we refer to this as the 40/70 benchmark.

2. The precipitation would have to remain as 100% snow.

3. The water to snow ratio would have to remain very high (15:1).

Basically, all of that has to happen for us to get the “biggest storm of the year” so far.

If one or all of those things don’t happen then we will not see a foot of snow for all locations.

So let’s just focus on what is likely to happen and how the morning and evening commutes will be. Morning commute: very, very difficult. Evening commute: slow and some black ice on untreated surface.

I am not convinced this storm will be “one” yet. Yes, if we get an inch of water changed over to 15 inches of snow…sure I can see us getting a foot or more. However, once the coastal front or stationary front sets up along the coast I believe sleet and even some rain will mix in for those areas. So we’ll see just how much snow Portland gets. Right now I believe Portland gets 9 inches before the changeover to sleet.