Check out the cumulonimbus clouds on the visible sat!

If you love the weather like I do then you will enjoy this picture of the visible satellite for the Northeast. In an hour or two all we have to do is look to the northwest and see the line of clouds moving southeast! The sun will be out behind that line of clouds and in all its beauty!

Let’s look at what actually happened and why:

1. We received between 6-9 inches of snow for most areas, generally speaking. There was some blowing and drifting, mostly off of roofs and such.

2. The storm took a more easterly track (the NAM model). Mostly b/c no stationary front really setup along the coast like yesterday. Therefore, almost nobody saw sleet or rain. Warmer air almost never made it into the 850mb layer above the surface.

3. The heaviest snow bands remained offshore and no one saw 15-18 inch snowfall.

That’s it in a nutshell. Just an average winter storm at best. Certainly not anything close to the biggest storm this winter. The potential was there, but potential never became reality. Consequently, this storm was a joke compared to last weekend’s storm! Last weekend’s storm blew up in the Gulf of Maine. This one never even got into the gulf. If it had, things would have played out much differently.

MAINE

…ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY…
DURHAM 8.5 1005 AM 3/2
LEWISTON 8.6 1118 AM 3/2
TURNER 6.0 900 AM 3/2 16 DEGREES
LEWISTON 5.8 742 AM 3/2
POLAND 5.6 700 AM 3/2
LEWISTON 4.0 635 AM 3/2
TURNER 3.5 700 AM 3/2

…CUMBERLAND COUNTY…
PORTLAND 9.3 1059 AM 3/2
CUMBERLAND 9.0 914 AM 3/2
CUMBERLAND CENTER 9.0 1112 AM 3/2
PORTLAND-DEERING CTR 9.0 905 AM 3/2 18 F
SOUTH CASCO 9.0 900 AM 3/2 MODERATE SNOW
GRAY NWS OFFICE 8.5 1043 AM 3/2
NORTH YARMOUTH 8.5 1004 AM 3/2 NWS EMPLOYEE
SOUTH PORTLAND 8.5 854 AM 3/2 KB1OND
SOUTH PORTLAND 8.0 1109 AM 3/2 PORTLAND JETPORT
GRAY 7.0 845 AM 3/2 NWS OFFICE
SOUTH WINDHAM 6.5 742 AM 3/2
PORTLAND-N DEERING 6.3 715 AM 3/2
SCARBOROUGH 6.0 835 AM 3/2 16 DEGREES SN
BRUNSWICK 5.0 808 AM 3/2
FALMOUTH 4.0 530 AM 3/2
BRIDGTON 3.8 715 AM 3/2
BRIDGTON 3.0 700 AM 3/2

…KENNEBEC COUNTY…
SOUTH CHINA 8.5 1001 AM 3/2
RANDOLF 6.3 913 AM 3/2
AUGUSTA 5.5 830 AM 3/2 16 DEGREES
BELGRADE 4.0 920 AM 3/2 K1AOK

…KNOX COUNTY…
CAMDEN 4.8 831 AM 3/2
HOPE 4.0 625 AM 3/2

…LINCOLN COUNTY…
NOBLEBORO 7.0 830 AM 3/2 +SN

…OXFORD COUNTY…
OXFORD 7.0 1043 AM 3/2 21 F
OTISFIELD 6.0 946 AM 3/2 VERY LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH PARIS 5.5 920 AM 3/2
DENMARK 5.0 830 AM 3/2
EAST HIRAM 4.5 732 AM 3/2
FRYEBURG 2.0 809 AM 3/2 19 F

…SAGADAHOC COUNTY…
TOPSHAM 8.0 920 AM 3/2 18 DEGREES
BATH 5.0 700 AM 3/2

…SOMERSET COUNTY…
SKOWHEGAN 6.0 1003 AM 3/2

…YORK COUNTY…
WEST NEWFIELD 9.5 920 AM 3/2 19 DEGREES SN
SANFORD 9.2 945 AM 3/2
HOLLIS 9.0 950 AM 3/2 VERY LIGHT SNOW
PARSONSFIELD 7.0 908 AM 3/2
SPRINGVALE 7.0 846 AM 3/2
CAPE NEDDICK 6.8 650 AM 3/2
KITTERY POINT 6.0 737 AM 3/2

NEW HAMPSHIRE

…BELKNAP COUNTY…
ALTON BAY 9.0 1019 AM 3/2
GILFORD 7.0 720 AM 3/2 20 DEGREES

…CARROLL COUNTY…
WOLFEBORO FALLS 8.0 828 AM 3/2
WOLFEBORO 5.8 640 AM 3/2
TAMWORTH 3.3 700 AM 3/2
MADISON 2.0 550 AM 3/2
NORTH CONWAY 2.0 700 AM 3/2

…COOS COUNTY…
GORHAM 2.0 901 AM 3/2 GORHAM PD

…GRAFTON COUNTY…
HANOVER CENTER 1.0 852 AM 3/2 HANOVER PD; +SN

…MERRIMACK COUNTY…
CONCORD 9.0 728 AM 3/2 HEAVY SNOW
HENNIKER 7.5 754 AM 3/2

…ROCKINGHAM COUNTY…
LONDONDERRY 11.5 939 AM 3/2
ATKINSON 10.0 1041 AM 3/2
DEERFIELD 10.0 1102 AM 3/2
HAMPSTEAD 9.5 830 AM 3/2
WEST HAMPSTEAD 8.6 903 AM 3/2
DERRY 8.5 723 AM 3/2
EPPING 8.0 756 AM 3/2
HAMPTON 7.0 730 AM 3/2
STRATHAM 4.0 600 AM 3/2 HEAVY SNOW

…STRAFFORD COUNTY…
SOMERSWORTH 10.0 941 AM 3/2
STRAFFORD 9.0 1034 AM 3/2 BLSN

…SULLIVAN COUNTY…
EAST LEMPSTER 4.5 1102 AM 3/2
GRANTHAM 3.0 900 AM 3/2
CROYDON 2.5 814 AM 3/2
SUNAPEE 2.5 922 AM 3/2 VERY LIGHT SNOW

The storm is taking a more easterly track. That means a few things:

1. The threat for sleet and or rain will be significantly reduced, even at the coast.

2. The precip has a better chance to stay all snow.

3. The heaviest bands of snow are offshore.

One note, the forecast map below is for the first part of the storm. The second phase will come through after 3 p.m. and give us an additional few inches of snow, up to 3-5 in the heaviest bands. So just add that to the totals below if you are looking for a “total storm accumulation”.

Here we go again…

First things first…Yes, there is “potential” for a very significant snowfall for nearly all locations from this storm that will be here Tomorrow. Here’s a few reasons why:

1. The storm would have to take a “perfect” track in the gulf of Maine, normally we refer to this as the 40/70 benchmark.

2. The precipitation would have to remain as 100% snow.

3. The water to snow ratio would have to remain very high (15:1).

Basically, all of that has to happen for us to get the “biggest storm of the year” so far.

If one or all of those things don’t happen then we will not see a foot of snow for all locations.

So let’s just focus on what is likely to happen and how the morning and evening commutes will be. Morning commute: very, very difficult. Evening commute: slow and some black ice on untreated surface.

I am not convinced this storm will be “one” yet. Yes, if we get an inch of water changed over to 15 inches of snow…sure I can see us getting a foot or more. However, once the coastal front or stationary front sets up along the coast I believe sleet and even some rain will mix in for those areas. So we’ll see just how much snow Portland gets. Right now I believe Portland gets 9 inches before the changeover to sleet.