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Archive for February, 2009

Monday’s Storm

Posted by wxgeek on February 28, 2009

There is the “potential” for a significant snowfall on Monday. However, I don’t forecast potential so with still plenty of uncertaintly concerning the computer models I have yet to commit to “major” snow.

If the models have more consistent runs the rest of the weekend then I will be on board with another major snowstorm for Monday. Conversely, if the models consistently take the track of the low pressure system more towards the east, then it will only be a glancing blow.

By tomorrow morning at this time we should all know for sure!

Stay tuned…

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Snowfall Totals

Posted by wxgeek on February 23, 2009

another very accurate forecast! =)

MAINE

…ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY…
AUBURN 14.3 436 AM 2/23

…CUMBERLAND COUNTY…
CUMBERLAND CENTER 11.5 637 AM 2/23
WESTBROOK 8.0 345 AM 2/23
PORTLAND 6.5 610 AM 2/23

…FRANKLIN COUNTY…
JAY 22.0 343 AM 2/23
NEW SHARON 21.0 533 AM 2/23
EUSTIS 11.2 604 AM 2/23

…KENNEBEC COUNTY…
CHINA 11.0 311 AM 2/23
AUGUSTA 10.5 520 AM 2/23
RANDOLF 8.0 351 AM 2/23

…KNOX COUNTY…
CAMDEN 7.6 637 AM 2/23

…OXFORD COUNTY…
HARTFORD 21.0 617 AM 2/23
HEBRON 18.0 433 AM 2/23
WATERFORD 17.0 255 AM 2/23
DENMARK 16.0 617 AM 2/23

…SOMERSET COUNTY…
SKOWHEGAN 13.0 254 AM 2/23

…WALDO COUNTY…
BELMONT 17.0 451 AM 2/23
THORNDIKE 11.0 637 AM 2/23

…YORK COUNTY…
SANFORD 8.0 425 AM 2/23

NEW HAMPSHIRE

…BELKNAP COUNTY…
BLACK CAT ISLAND 5.0 346 AM 2/23

…CARROLL COUNTY…
MADISON 14.5 613 AM 2/23
CRAWFORD NOTCH 10.5 510 AM 2/23

…COOS COUNTY…
LOST RIVER 21.0 510 AM 2/23
DIXVILLE NOTCH 14.0 510 AM 2/23
COLEBROOK 12.0 510 AM 2/23
GORHAM 11.5 510 AM 2/23
PINKHAM NOTCH 11.5 510 AM 2/23
TWIN MOUNTAIN 7.5 510 AM 2/23
LANCASTER 6.5 510 AM 2/23

…GRAFTON COUNTY…
FRANCONIA NOTCH 13.0 510 AM 2/23

…ROCKINGHAM COUNTY…
STRATHAM 4.5 525 AM 2/23 S-

…SULLIVAN COUNTY…
SUNAPEE 15.5 346 AM 2/23

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snow forecast

Posted by wxgeek on February 22, 2009

snow

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The backside of the “comma”

Posted by wxgeek on February 21, 2009

The models are now in much more agreement that the backside of the “comma” shape from the coastal low will produce much more in the way of snowfall than the warm air advection ahead of the storm.

As the storm strengthens during the late evening it will wrap and pull colder air in from the northwest and the snowfall will be heavy at times, even at the coast, as the storm rides northeastward.

Essentially we are looking at almost 2 events from one storm. The first will be the precipitation out ahead of the low as it is forming. The second will be the moisture being pulled in on the backside as the cyclonic flow wraps in the snow from the northwest.

It is possible that 6 inches of snow could fall for parts of the southern coast, and more likely the mid coast as the storm pulls away.

Remember, this will be “after” a significant several hours of rain. So things are going to change in a hurry with this storm.The storm will not technically be “over” until midday Monday for northern locations. Consequently, the mountains will see snow into monday as upslope snow showers persist. 2 feet of snow is likely in those localized areas.

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February Storm

Posted by wxgeek on February 21, 2009

Tomorrow’s winter storm will be different than Thursday’s storm for a few reasons:

1. It will be a stronger storm and will get more orgranized faster than the last storm. This means it will have time to deepen in pressure and heavier bands of precipitation will develop ahead of the cyclonic flow.

2. The wind will be stronger out of the east and bring in warmer air off the ocean. This means the rain snow line will likely shift farther northwest and not just the coast will get rain. As far northwest as Lewiston will see at least a mix and maybe even a brief period of rain for a time.

3. Snowfall totals will be significantly higher with this storm compared to the last one. Look for over a foot of snow in the mountains of western Maine and the foothills. The lakes region will also get hit very hard with heavy, wet snow. Power outages may be an issue.

4. The entire coast will likely see very little in the way of snowfall. It will be almost entirely a rain event except for some slushy snow early and some fluffly snow on the backside as the storm exits into the Canada.

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